Forecast: The Next 7 Years

 

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An Amazing Dream

On September 25, 2010, my wife and I were living along the Loyalsock Creek, North of Montoursville, Pennsylvania, right where I grew up. Early that morning I had the following dream:

I was in the woods behind my parents house (across the road from where I was living). In my mind I knew it was hunting season in New York, yet for some reason I was able to hunt in Pennsylvania (out of season). I looked out into a clearing in the woods and saw a nice 8 to 10 point buck go by. It was followed by another nice 8 to 10 point buck, just like the first. It was followed by a monster buck (e.g., 20+ points)—extremely rare for these woods. It was followed by another monster buck, just like it. Lastly, a decent sized doe crossed in front of me. For whatever reason, I did not even think about trying to shoot one of them.

It turns out my initial interpretation of this dream in 2010 was correct, however, over the following years I questioned whether this was going to be growth in my business or a rise in the stock market. Early in 2014, it all came together for me and this has set the stage for my understanding of what is to come. Before we get to that, here is the explanation of this dream:

Each deer represents a year, just like Pharoah’s dream with seven cows that Joseph interpreted (see Genesis 41), where each cow represented a year. This type of dream aligns with this Biblical example of one for economic preparation. The whitetail deer is also a clean animal (see Deuteronomy 14:3-5). Its size reflects a dimension of prosperity.

The remaining aspects of the dream are a bit more personal. I started my investment advisory business in 2010. Stocks are the field where I hunt game, so to speak. The deer represent yearly performance of the U.S. stock market (it was hunting season in New York [Wall Street], but I was able to hunt in Pennsylvania). The size and points of the bucks represent the size of the returns for the stock market (see Figure 1 below).

The annual timing, however, is aligned with Israel’s ancient agricultural or civil calendar, which begins after the harvest, and not our calendar year. Sabbatical years and the Year of Jubilee—agricultural and economic events—also begin with the agricultural New Year (see Leviticus 25:9). God changed Israel’s calendar after the Exodus from Egypt. This Jewish religious calendar is what most of us are more familiar with. It begins during the month of Nisan (our March-April). Through this dream, God has laid out an annual stock market cycle that begins on Rosh Hashanah (“Head of the Year”), which typically falls between mid-September and early October on our calendar.

Figure 1: Chart Interpreting the Dream

This dream ended on September 13, 2015. This dream and related guidance from the Lord has been the primary reason for my stock market bullishness over the last several years in the face of the false market prophets constantly calling for a crash. As I wrote in the December 2012 issue of The True Vine Letter (see page 9), and pointed out in the above chart, the bear is dead. 

God has laid out an annual stock market cycle that begins on Rosh Hashanah ...

I am struck by how God has form fitted this dream to me personally. I am an avid whitetail deer hunter and primarily in this very area. This dream took place in the woods behind the house where I grew up. I spent my youth swimming and fishing in the creek. (In fact, the Holy Spirit has brought to my remembrance how, as a teenager growing up there, I had a desire deep within in me to invest in stocks as a profession. At the time, I was born again but knew nothing of God or investing.) Michele and I were married there. As I mentioned, we even lived there ourselves for a little while. I have since had several other dreams regarding the stock market in this same geographic location (some of which have included bears—an animal which I do not hunt—neither in the woods or in the stock market). My most recent dream took place right where the photograph was taken for the cover of my book, The Truth On Investing: From the Darkness of the Crowd to the Light. This dream has set the stage for my forecast for the next 7 years.

Before I move on, allow me to share two important lessons from this.  

First, God will give us supernatural wisdom, but we must act on it by faith to take advantage of it. The interpretation of this dream was not that everything would work out fine for me no matter what. I had to bring forth works that aligned with it to achieve a successful outcome. 

Second, if we are in the will of God and sensitive to the teaching of His Spirit we just might be awakened to the fact that everything around us in our natural lives exists to reveal His very purpose. Everything has been designed by God to revolve around Christ.

 

Another Amazing Dream

Now for the next dream ... I believe the following dream began on September 14, 2015—the first deer picking up where the last deer ended in the dream I just disclosed. Let me just say that this one is not easy. Joseph had it easy with Pharoah’s dreams compared to this one! Here is the dream that I had on March 10, 2014:

I saw a doe on the far side of the Loyalsock Creek across the road from where I grew up. Then I was with a couple of other guys. We were hunting but forgot our bows. I think we may also have been in some sort of deer blind. One of them, or perhaps both of them, could not see the first deer. Then I had them look again and we saw a doe and a small doe (a fawn). Then I looked to my right and saw three bucks swimming upstream in the middle of the creek. They ranged in size from a spike (2 points) to a decent buck (10 points). They were swimming in a deep area and only their heads were above water. I grabbed my bow and was going toward them to take a shot.

 Here we are at the exact location of the dream.

 Here we are at the exact location of the dream.

I have prayed and meditated on this dream extensively. Now for the interpretation.

First, this is what this means for the general economic environment during these years:

The whole environment of this dream surrounded the Loyalsock Creek. A large creek like the Loyalsock has an entire ecosystem that surrounds it (in the Western U.S. they would call this a river). I recall the days when my daughter Ariel was an infant and I would take her down to the swing next to the creek. She would sit perfectly still with me watching the water for as long as I wanted to sit there. We would watch ducks and ducklings go by, beavers, a blue heron, fish jumping, hawks flying overhead, and so on. The backdrop of this dream thus represents the flow of liquidity and the level of inflation.

The Loyalsock Creek obviously has a constant flow of water downstream, yet, in the location of the first part of this dream, the flow is barely noticeable. The economic backdrop of these years will be characterized by little or no inflation in the U.S. (There could be outright deflation in other major foreign economies.) The water in the location of the creek in the second part of the dream has a faster flow to it. The transition to this part of the creek was the Holy Spirit's way of showing me when an environment of higher inflation begins. As the latter years of the dream progress, the bucks are swimming upstream into a faster current. This has lead me to conclude that inflation will keep intensifying during these years. 

Second, whether or not the deer have antlers and, in one case, the size reveal the performance of the U.S. stock market. I lay this out in the following predictive timeline. (Note: the Hebrew day begins in the evening so the actual date may come a day earlier than what I have below. Also, the stock market returns are for the overall market. There will be sectors of the market that perform much better and other sectors that perform much worse. Overall, they will create this general market price level. )  

September 14, 2015 to September 9, 2018

The stock market will end October 2, 2016 at about the same level—or perhaps down a little (let’s call it -5% to 0%)—that it began from on September 14, 2015, because the deer is a doe with no antlers and thus no points (no growth). Apparently, many professionals will not see this one coming for one reason or another (the guys hunting with me could not see the first deer). The stock market will then finish on September 20, 2017 at about the same price level it began on October 3, 2016 (-5% to 0%), because the 2nd deer was a regular size doe. Then from September 21, 2017 to September 9, 2018 the market is going to take a hit, because the 3rd deer was a fawn. Perhaps the events of the prior sabbatical year—which will include a new U.S. President coming into office—will give birth to this decline. (I am assuming that a fawn means a broader market decline, however, an alternate possibility is that the fawn means small capitalization stocks will be flat, perhaps while the broader market still declines somewhat. I have never experienced a "fawn" year before.) I don’t know how much of a decline a fawn is, but let’s call it somewhere between -10% to -20%. It is important to remember that this is the annual change. On an intra-year basis, the decline could be more.

Also regarding this three year period, the fact that the deer were on the other side of the creek, and thus, too far away for me to shoot at, could imply that stocks will become or remain overvalued during this time, from my perspective.

September 10, 2018 to September 6, 2021

After September 10, 2018 we have a major transition because the deer are now swimming upstream in the middle of the creek for the following three years. I suspect that this will be because inflation will accelerate during this time. Stocks will generate increasingly higher annual returns during this period, but they will be fighting against the current of higher inflation. The fact that these last three bucks were swimming with their heads just above water, seems to imply that either broad stock market returns barely outpace inflation or inflation is high enough to consume the entire gains. The stock market returns about 2% from September 10, 2018 to September 29, 2019, about 4% to 6% from September 30, 2019 to September 18, 2020, and about 8% to 10% from September 19, 2020 to September 6, 2021. 

The most important revelation of this dream is that inflation will accelerate after September 2018. 

 

Joshua S. Hall, ChFC

 

Disclaimer:

The True Vine Letter is a publication of True Vine Investments, the investment advisory business of Joshua S. Hall, ChFC, a Registered Investment Adviser in the U.S.A. The information presented in The True Vine Letter is provided for educational purposes only and not to be used or considered as an offer or a solicitation to sell or an offer or solicitation to buy or subscribe for securities, investment products or other financial instruments, nor to constitute any advice or recommendation with respect to such securities, investment products or other financial instruments. The True Vine Letter is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and the particular needs of any specific person who may read this letter. You should independently evaluate specific investments and consult a professional before making any investment decisions.

Positive comments made regarding this article should not be construed by readers to be an endorsement of Joshua S. Hall's ability to act as an investment adviser.